Case Study · MENA Ride-Hailing Leader · Analytics Product 05 / 07
Pricing & Revenue Intelligence
Scenario simulators that answered the most expensive question in the business — what happens to GMV, subsidies, COGS, and net revenue if we change the margin in city X — before anyone touched production pricing.
Scenario ModelingPricing SimulationGoogle Sheets
SQLFinancial ModelingElasticity Assumptions
product scorecard — structural factsproduction
2
scenario models — pricing simulation & GMV expectation
1
input cell drives each scenario — New Margin %
4
delta formats per line — ABS · % of GMV · DIFF · DIFF ABS
−10%
explicit elasticity assumption, stated in the model
Text-only case study, by design: these models live in files carrying an internal data classification, so no screenshots are published — the methodology is the portfolio piece.
01The Business Problem
Margin changes are the highest-leverage, highest-risk lever a marketplace has. Raise the margin and trips may fall; add subsidies and net revenue bleeds. Commercial teams needed to see the full financial cascade of a pricing decision — per city, per product — before deploying it, not after.
The goal: turn "what if we change the margin?" from a debate into a calculation anyone could run by editing one cell.
02My Role
Sole analyst on the product: I designed the model structure, wrote the SQL that fed the historical baselines, and built the scenario calculators with designated input cells, explicit assumptions, and full delta accounting.
03What I Built
Pricing Simulation Model
Per-city calculators (built city by city, tab by tab) comparing three months of baseline data. The analyst enters a New Margin % into a designated input cell; the model cascades the change through expected trips, GMV, subsidies, returns & waivers, COGS, and net revenue for each product line.
GMV Expectation Model
The same engine applied month by month with monthly baseline blocks: expected GMV, rider and captain subsidies, promotion discounts, marketing credits, returns and waivers, current vs expected COGS, and current vs expected net revenue — every line in absolute, %-of-GMV, and difference formats.
Explicit Assumptions
The elasticity assumption — an expected growth rate of −10% under margin increase — sits in a visible, labeled cell, not buried in a formula. Anyone reviewing the scenario sees exactly what was assumed and can change it.
Price-Change History Tracking
Weekly trend charts of bookings and trips per product line spanning past price changes — so every new scenario is read against what actually happened the last time pricing moved.
SQL Baselines
bookings · trips · completed · GMV · COGS — per city × product × month
↓
Revenue Block
GMV · ATF · C/R per product line
Cost Block
rider & captain subsidies · promos · credits · returns · waivers · R&W
↓
Input Cells
New Margin % per product · Expected Growth Rate — labeled, editable, visible
↓
Elasticity Cascade
margin Δ → trips Δ → GMV Δ → subsidy & COGS Δ → net revenue Δ
↓
↓
Four Formats per Line
ABS · % of GMV · DIFF · DIFF ABS
↓
Weekly Price-Change Trend
what happened the last time pricing moved
Cross-Month ATF Test
prior-month volumes × current ATF
two models share one engine — Pricing Simulation asks “what if the margin moves?”, GMV Expectation adds a growth assumption on top
04Signature Build Details
Input cells, not input meetings: the interface is one designated blue cell — New Margin % — against labeled current-margin references. Editing it recomputes the entire financial cascade.
Four formats per line item: every financial line reads in ABS, % of GMV, DIFF, and DIFF ABS — so finance, commercial, and ops each read the scenario in their native unit.
The full cost side, not just revenue: subsidies (rider and captain), returns, waivers, and COGS are modeled explicitly — a margin change that "grows GMV" but bleeds subsidies shows its true net effect.
History beside hypothesis: the price-change trend charts sit in the same file as the simulator — assumption checking built into the workflow.
05KPIs Defined & Governed
GMVNet RevenueCOGS
Rider / Captain SubsidiesReturns & Waivers
Margin %C/RATF
06Decisions Enabled
Commercial teams tested margin scenarios per city and product line before deployment.
Pricing debates moved from opinions to a shared model with visible assumptions.
The full subsidy-and-COGS cascade prevented "revenue up, profit down" surprises.
07Skills Demonstrated
Scenario & sensitivity modelingFinancial modeling
Elasticity assumptionsModel UX (input-cell design)
SQL baselinesSheets as a modeling tool